First, the good news. George Speight and his rebels have not been catapulted
into
power through their crude attempt at armed insurrection.
Now, the bad news, and it is regrettable in the extreme. The fact that the
interim civilian
executive named by Fiji's military leadership includes not one ethnic Indian
means there
must remain a deep sense of foreboding about Fiji's future.
Although the practitioners of terrorism may not have been rewarded directly,
their
tactics of bullying and brinksmanship have achieved the effect of stripping
almost half
the islands' population of their political rights. This leaves Fiji on the slippery
slope to
rogue nation status.
As the international community prepares to pass judgment on the outcome, there
is little
point in dancing around the fundamental truth of what is proposed - this new-look
Fijian government will be inherently and hopelessly undemocratic.
Even with Speight and his ilk out of the loop, an unelected executive, appointed
by
military fiat, represents a repugnant constitutional detour. Notwithstanding
the
pressures under which military chief Commodore Frank Bainimarama was forced
to
cobble together this interim government, it would not pass muster in any democracy
worthy of the name.
The non-discriminatory principles of Fiji's 1997 constitution have been trashed.
Gone
is the protocol for a multi-party (read, multi-racial) cabinet. Gone, it seems,
are
provisions requiring that merit and equal opportunity serve as the guiding principles
for
recruitment and promotion in Fiji's public sector.
Most fundamentally of all, gone is any realistic prospect in the foreseeable
future of an
ethnic Indian serving as prime minister.
Not only has the government of Mahendra Chaudhry been overthrown, but the
composition of the military-backed interim government, and the charter under
which it
comes to power - that is, with the promise of far-reaching constitutional review
to
entrench all executive power in the hands of indigenous Fijians - produces an
outcome
which, if anything, is worse than the bad old days of 1987.
What do we know of Fiji's newly appointed Prime Minister, Laisenia Qarase?
A
merchant banker and company director, he headed the Fiji Development Bank in
the
1990s, overseeing concessional loans to indigenous communities.
He resigned soon after Mahendra Chaudhry's election victory in May last year,
complaining loudly that the Fijian Labor Party was hell-bent on dismantling
affirmative
action.
To be fair, though, Qarase should not be cast as a rabid ultra-nationalist
in the mould of
Speight. He is essentially a technocrat, put into office in an attempt to steer
Fiji through
this turbulence with at least a modicum of management dexterity.
Likewise, the appointment of a moderate, Ratu Epeli Nailitikau, as his deputy
points to
an attempt by the military to present a respectable face to the outside world.
Yet the politics of race remain the grubby subtext. The unadorned reality of
this new
government is that Indo-Fijians - 44 per cent of Fiji's population - have been
told to
forget about their political aspirations.
International condemnation is guaranteed. The removal of an elected multi-racial
government in favor of a power elite biased towards one community is a flagrant
breach
of the Harare Declaration. Exclusion from the Commonwealth must remain a distinct
likelihood.
So, too, the loss of European Union sugar concessions worth more than $200
million a
year.
For its part, the Howard Government will also come under pressure to impose
punitive
trade sanctions, which could cripple Fiji's industrial base.
What all this means for the fate of Speight's 27 remaining hostages is anyone's
guess.
It has been depressingly evident from the outset that the rebels had no exit
strategy in
the event their threats did not deliver them power.
That the hostage-takers may still benefit from an offer to walk free is galling.
For if and
when Fiji emerges from this trauma, it will do so with a mutant constitution,
an
impoverished economy - and a gangster class emboldened by the experience of
forcing
a duly-elected government from power at gunpoint.
Tony Parkinson is the international editor of The Age.
E-mail: tparkinson@theage.fairfax.com.au
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